Nudging SARS-CoV-2 to be Less Deadly

Remember, slowing the spread of this novel coronavirus is not merely about flattening the curve of current infections. If we want vaccines to get us out of this, we need to keep the virus from developing a mutation that would render the vaccines useless. The virus has already found one such mutation in Denmark. If we are lucky, the Danish cull of millions of minks combined with testing, contact tracing and quarantines will wipe out that mutation.

The more freely the virus can spread, the more chances it has to develop mutations, and the more likely it is for a new mutation to make it worse. If we want to get back to something resembling normal, we want the vaccines to work… and if we want the vaccines to work, we need to minimize the spread of this virus as much as we can, thereby reducing its opportunities to evade our vaccines and make itself more lethal.

When it is able to spread easily, it can afford to become worse than it already is. When it has difficulty finding new hosts, pressure is on it to become less lethal.

I’ve written about this before in my own words. Now let’s show it to you in someone else’s words. The first link is to a current article. The second is to a much older article, the one I remembered that caused me to think about this early in the pandemic.

Coronavirus is evolving. Whether it gets deadlier or not may depend on us. The Guardian 2020-11. Laura Spinney.

The Evolution of Virulence. Scientific American 1993-04. Paul W. Ewald.

Please stay in your COVID-free bubble as much as you can. Everyone’s future depends on it.