Hurricane Laura’s Impending Landfall

The headlines are scary, but that’s partly to sell newspapers (or online views) and partly to jolt people in low-lying areas to evacuate. It’s better to warn too much than too little.

We’ve all seen that climate change has altered the way we ought to judge a hurricane’s power. Wind speed isn’t the most important measure any more. Unfortunately, officialdom and bureaucracy haven’t devised a new shorthand measure yet. We’re still stuck with a category system based on wind speed.

Laura’s path to shore looks very much like Rita’s in 2005, but she is not Rita. Category 4 sounds frightening. Although the estimate of 115 mph that I told my mother a few days ago was low, Laura’s wind punch is more like Alicia in 1983 than Rita. Laura also isn’t nearly as big or intense as Rita. Her barometric pressure is still well above 950 millibars, where Rita’s reached 895 mb. Her forward motion is fast, 15 to 16 mph. The faster she moves forward, the less of her energy is going into strengthening. A scientific paper analyzes how forward speed affects the amount of flooding a hurricane causes and its storm surge, using Rita as a baseline because she was an especially intense hurricane. Faster forward motion means a slightly higher storm surge, but means as much as 40% less flooding from it.

What does all of this mean for family, friends and anybody else within Laura’s reach?

Those at risk from the storm surge or with large trees that could come down on their homes should evacuate, and those I’ve been in touch with have generally done so. Unsheltered low-lying places on or very close to the Gulf are not places to be in a hurricane: Sabine Pass, Bolivar, Crystal Beach… But there are circumstances where it can make sense to ride this out.

There are always risks in riding out a strong hurricane. It isn’t to be done lightly. But evacuation involves risks too. I know someone whose parent died from deep vein thrombosis due to the long car ride to seek a safe place to flee from another hurricane. This year we have added a pandemic to the evacuation risks.

With that in mind, riding it out can be safer than going out into the pandemic for those who are in a sturdy building (having survived Rita is a good sign) that isn’t too close to the water, isn’t in the way of trees that may come down, and isn’t in a low area. (If it didn’t flood during Harvey, that’s a major plus.) It’s even better when the drainage system actively pumps water out instead of relying on gravity, and when there is a levee.

Not everyone who rides out a hurricane is crazy. Some are first responders. Some are essential workers in the refineries or chemical plants, most of which can only shut down in a long careful sequence so they continue running in all but the worst of storms. And this year, some will look at the pandemic, evaluate their position and decide the storm is the smaller risk.

If I were still at the Space Center, still making the evacuation decision for a lot of other women, it would have an entirely different flavor this time… especially for those with disabilities that are now complicating factors for COVID-19.

As I said, not everyone who rides it out is crazy. And Laura is not Rita. I can definitely understand if some people who would ordinarily evacuate decide that they are going to stay put unless there truly is no other option.