System 1 vs System 2 Thinking for Voters

Note: The next post will be about System 1 versus System 2 thinking for businesses (and people going about our lives) in this pandemic.

Everyone’s mind operates on two levels, System 1 & System 2. We all use System 1 most of the time. It’s fast, “intuitive” and able to cope with the huge volume of decisions we have to make every day. But to be so fast, it has to skip something—analysis.

What we think of as logic, analysis and rational thought is done by System 2. Some people, like me, do work that requires us to develop a habit of recognizing when we should escalate from System 1 to System 2 so we can really think something through. But System 2 is slow and takes a lot of effort. Even the most logical people can’t use it all the time… and many people don’t use it any more than they must. (See the book Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman if you want more detail.)

This year the USA faces what I believe are its most important elections since at least the lead-up to World War II. Politicians know most people only use System 1 to cast their vote. That’s why campaigns say lots of things designed to push System 1 hot buttons and go directly for the emotions. In 2016 both the USA and UK showed everyone what happens when too many people vote through System 1, especially when outside powers (e.g. Russia) are feeding extra button-pushing material into the noise.

Let’s not allow that again. Let’s use System 2 and think it through before we vote. I’m intentionally asking you to do this before the major political parties in the USA have fully officially declared their candidates and platforms (although we all know the broad-brush picture).

You may wonder how to do it when many politicians are saying things designed to trigger System 1. Set what they say to one side.

Look at their behavior. How they have been behaving, especially in the most recent years, is basically what you’ll get if you elect them. Their actions may indicate anything: cheering white nationalists (an ugly trend among some in the past few years), sticking to a strong moral center, choosing well when they delegate, bending whatever way the polls go, sticking their necks out on behalf of the downtrodden, catering to big shots heedless of the effect on constituents, pretending reality isn’t happening, visibly learning from constituents, doing all they can to make voting difficult or dangerous… whatever their actions show, good or bad, that’s what they’ll do if elected.

If you do this seriously, you will automatically filter out “fake news.” When a piece of information about what a politician has done (or failed to do) is genuine, you can find it at multiple reliable sources that are independent from each other. Variations in the information are a matter of perspective and access but the fundamental nugget is the same. When it’s false, the sources it comes from are interrelated and simply passed it along to each other, and variations in the story don’t trace to solid ground.

The best measuring stick to apply is whether the politician’s behavior is focused on helping a small portion of the population whom they regard as being part of their tribe, or on helping a wide swathe of the population in which many are not at all like them. Look for those who are trying to work for “the good of the whole.”

Don’t expect to find a candidate or a political party that you agree with perfectly. That rarely happens. But somebody will stand out as behaving in a way you respect more than the others. Somebody will tend to act not only for you, but for neighbors and friends and the whole community they are asking to represent. That’s who you want.

That’s how to use System 2 to cast a vote wisely.

See you at the voting booth! Or this year, to be safe, at the ballot drop-off box. (If you’re mailing your ballot, please mail it very early so it will definitely get there in time, and remember it now requires extra postage.)